What expect from the next months

[Lawyer]

With the arrival a year ago of Skytrak the market of simulators has became more accessible and for all budgets, but unfortunately it seems that we aren't dealing with a truly accurate product (as the GC2 or TM).
Surely market will become more aggressive and producers will work a lot to create new tools at affordable prices in order to fight Skytrak.
Skytrak itself must certainly improve.
What should we expect in the near future? Skytrak will improve? Foresight Sports and everyone else will continue watching from the window (losing a large segment of the market) or sell new products at a lower cost? Who knows? Please talk

[wbond]

Which product isn't accurate?

[ssweens]

I wouldn't characterize the Skytrak as inaccurate at all. I'm not laser measuring or anything, but I take it to the range and it's amazing to see my ball fly and then Skytrak match the flight and distance as best I can tell.

[Mazenblue]

SkyTrak Flat out rocks for the price. It is very accurate. My numbers went down this year and I blamed SkyTrak. It was me, and after a lot of swing changes with the help of SkyTrak things are back on Trak. I am a fan.

[Lawyer]

I just sayd truly accurate compared to the Gc2 and the Trackman. The focus of the post was another. What we must aspect in the near future?

[davray666]

I think the unique position Skytrak has is that it's the most affordable unit that measures golf ball data and has an accuracy that is good enough.
The measured parameters are also good enough for what you need to improve or maintain your swing. More measured parameters and higher accuracy would be better but the key phrase here is, good enough.
So striving for good enough and a lower price. What will happen?
Radar....
there are several new technologies/products on the market that primarily target the automotive industry. That will bring up the volume and significantly reduce the cost of building a unit. Radar technology is extremely complicated and especially the LM market that is dominated by 2 player that have a lot of patents and a huge head start. I therefore believe that we will see more affordable devices from those 2 rather than anybody new. Simply because the investment to get to a basic LM is massive. To make that investment and address a saturated market with 2 dominant players is not smart. Problem here is that I don't see the prices of the tech coming down to a level that will enable a massive market expansion.

Camera based ...
The area of vision processing and camera technology has been around for a long time. In recent years we have seen a revolution and that is still ongoing. Several markets incl. automotive, mobile phones, surveillance and web data mining are experiencing a massive increase in investments, basic research and activity in general. All of this will help drive down cost and make the tech more broadly available. The ST and GC2 are 2 different devices in how they work. Let's look at the features and future for both.
In a simplified view you could call the ST a dumb camera and the GC2 a smart camera. The meaning being that the ST only takes a few pictures and sends the data to a host that provides the intelligence to process the data while the GC2 has the brains built in to the device and does not need any host(PC or iPad).
Before we start the debate on what is best it is important to keep in mind that the design decisions for GC2 where taken a decade ago when there where no iPads around and mobile phones had very little compute power.
It is very difficult to predict what solution will dominate in the future. Future mobile phones and tablets will have dedicated vision processing engines that will significantly outperform a PC of today. (assuming the graphics card or GPU is not used for vision processing) With that in mind the dumb camera seams like the smarter choice assuming all people will anyway have a high end smart phone. What I am not sure of is if there is a market for a better solution that cost significantly more. What would you buy?

The future product prediction for units that are good enough
1. ST like unit that is smaller and has similar features and functions of today's ST with somewhat improved accuracy. Needs the latest iPhone, iPad or PC. Shot to render time 1s. Cost 500$
2. Same as 1, but with better cameras and higher accuracy on all parameters. (something like instead of +/- 2 deg you get +/-1 deg HLA and VLA. Cost 1500$
3. Similar unit in size but with on board processing. Calculates spin and other parameters in near real time. e.g. before the ball hits the screen that is 10ft away. (This is not an assumption, I know it works) Needs no PC or iPad but can be connected to one if sim or other functions are required. Has options to connect multiple cameras for other purposes. Accuracy is proven and much better than today's GC2. Cost 2500$

The major roadblock for any of the predicted devices to hit the market is, investment cost. Foresight could pay Wintriss engineering to develop the improved GC3 according to the dumb camera concept. I am sure that would end up to be a better product than the ST and have a manufacturing cost below 250$. Problem is that this is a 1M$+ development project. That + annual operating cost is too much for a limited market.
What we need is the unlikely combination of a Golf nerd(s) that is/are also working somewhere with an advanced related project and can reuse a significant portion of the developed IP to build a LM as a side project where the investment ends up on their hobby account. If they would then release this as a semi open community driven project to attract other interested engineers to pitch in with some free resources from the hobby account. Well I think you get it, we will have to wait and see.

But for now ST is king. In my opinion they are milking the cow too hard and will soon kill it. The typical behavior of a start up that has limited funding and no vision to maximize market share while they still can.

[Lawyer]

Thanks for the answer. Your analysis is very clear. When do you think all this scenario could happen? It will need years or months?

[Bubba22]

Things change. Time is the question. You mentioned radar units as a non potential. Have a look at this http://translate.google.ca/translate...11&prev=search

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=e1fn0dc3Jso

[davray666]

That stuff looks cool. But is it affordable? I would think not. The show was in 2012 and at least I have not seen anything from them since then.
So what I meant with radar is that a unit needs to hit a price point well below 1k$ to become a huge success and sell in volumes required to spread out the development cost. I don't think radar has that potential and I know camera based systems have.
But as always with future predictions based on current knowledge. Someone might invent something new and prove you wrong

[davray666]

I don't know but would be surprised if there are not a few dumb camera projects ongoing since a long time. For the affordable advanced smart camera. That is at least 2 years away. The key word here is affordable.
If you are looking for a LM, buy a Skytrak and move on. Life is short and there will always be a better device around the corner. I did and I am happy with my decision. There is a lot that could be better with it but IMO it's the best bang for buck around currently.

[Bubba22]

I agree. The biggest camera projects you will find is GSA golf. Martin is constantly trying to get new products on to market. Stick with Skytrak for now. Of course new things are around the corner but no one can say when.

[davray666]

GSA golf:-) I like Martin's blog and projects, he seams like a nice guy with lot's of ideas and fun DIY style projects. As opposed to everybody else he is very open about what and how he does things. Unfortunately it also exposes the fact that he has no clue when it comes to designing advanced electronics and vision processing. So I would be surprised if he ever manages to build something worth buying. To start with for camera based systems you need to have the know how to build your own cameras and light rig and not buy them from Point Grey.

[Bubba22]

I have spent time with Martin at GSA. I think he does have good insight in designing advanced electronics. The problem is that he is not focused. He moves from one project to another before finishing anything. His best sim is the PX5. If you have followed GSA over the last 8 years, you will have seen probably 30 or more potential new products, most of which have been abandoned.

[mthunt]

Maybe Martin should not talk about his products until they can be released.

[davray666]

I think it's cool that he does talk about it and shows progress and discusses various aspects of the project. Imagine if he would have had the skill to design the Skytrak as opposed to the LX.
We would have had way more info on the progress or lack there of.

[Bubba22]

Martin is not focused enough to do a Skytrak. As well he needs help, big time! I think if he expanded and focused he could do a ST like unit. There was a whole team behind ST, not one person. Talking about your progress is fine but often certain things are proprietary. I have enjoyed reading his tech page over the last few years.